03AMMAN16

This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

SECRET SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 000016

SIPDIS

NOPORN

DEPT POR NEA AND PRM

E.O. 12958:DECL: 12/31/12
TAGS: PREL ECON IZ JO PREP

SUBJECT: IRAQIS IN JORDAN: VIEWS FROM UNHCR

REF: Amman 6518

Classified by DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d).

1[1 . (S/NF) Summary and Comment: According to UNHCR

officials, recognized refugees and asylum seekers represent

5.000 of the estimated 300,000 Iraqis resident in Jordan.

With just a ten percent refugee recognition rate, UNHCR
reports most Iraqis in Jordan are economic migrants who
simply are looking for a better life outside Iraq — and
finding it in grey market jobs in Amman, Zarqa and Irbid.

This year, UNHCR has seen a decrease in the number of Iraqi
registered asylum seekers, from just over 5,000 in 2001 to
just under 4,000 in 2002. UNHCR attributes the decline to
a slowdown in resettlement; toughened Jordanian border
policies; new Iraqi passport and exit visa policy; and a
recent economic upturn in Iraq. UNHCR believes the fact
that so few Iraqis seek to regularize their status via
UNHCR registration means that most Iraqis have "other
means" to live quasi-legally in Jordan, maintaining their
status here by traveling frequently between Iraq and
Jordan. In recent months, UNHCR has seen a "significant"
increase in the detention of recognized refugee and asylum
seekers and has heard anecdotal reports of tightened

two weeks. ORCA sources separately confirmed that the GOJ
has been actively looking for Iraqi agents and has
increased deportations, focusing primarily on Iraqi males
of military age. UNHCR's low recognition rate, coupled
with the current tightening of Iraqi border controls,
likely will keep the recognized refugee and asylum seeker
population small even as tensions rise inside Iraq. Given
the economic focus of Iraqis resident in Jordan, coupled
with a high degree of caution regarding their future
prospects inside Iraq, UNHCR believes most Iraqis would
remain in Jordan for "at least several years" following
regime change, waiting to see the long-term effects. End
summary and comment.

f.2 . (S/NF) UNHCR officials report that at any
given time, roughly 1,000 to 1,200 Iraqis
resident in Jordan hold UNHCR refugee status,
with another 4,000 or so registered as asylum
seekers. Although GID officials routinely cite

300.000 as the number of Iraqis resident in
Jordan, UNHCR officials told refcoord they have
no independent means of verifying this number
but also no reason to question its validity.

(GID officials recently told ORCA there
currently are 305,000 Iraqis in Jordan.) UNHCR
Representative Sten Bronee told refcoord that
UNHCR has seen a decrease in the number of
Iraqi registered asylum seekers this year, down
from just over 5,000 in CY2001 to just under

4.000 in CY2002 . Bronee and other UNHCR

officials said several factors likely have
contributed to the decline: a dramatic

slowdown in host country resettlement following
the September 11 terrorist attacks; toughened
Jordanian border policies; changes in Iraqi
passport and exit visa policy; and — according
to status determination officer Soufiane
Adjmali — a recent economic upturn in Iraq.

(Comment: Iraq currently is replacing all

passports to the new "H" series, a slow and
cumbersome process that may well have reduced
the number of Iraqis able to travel. At the
same time, however, Iraq has waived its
previous USD 200 exit visa fee, a factor that
in theory should increase the number of Iraqis
traveling abroad. )

f.3 . (C) UNHCR officials believe that the majority of the

Iraqi population resident in Jordan is a fluid population
that moves easily between Iraq and Jordan — primarily in
an effort to maintain legal status here. Noting that
several thousand people cross the Iraqi-Jordanian border
every day, UNHCR Senior Protection Officer Jacqueline

Parlevliet told refcoord that most Iraqis likely maintain
their quasi-legal status in Jordan by returning to Iraq
every six months or so. The fact that such a small
percentage of Iraqis resident in Jordan seek to regularize

their status via UNHCR registration (mere possession of a
UNHCR document identifying an Iraqi as a UNHCR asylum-
seeker generally gives Iraqis an additional six-month grace
period with the GOJ) , Bronee said, indicates that most
Iraqis have "other means" to earn a living and maintain
quasi-legal status in Jordan. (Comment: It may also

indicate that the vast majority of Iraqis understand that
they do not meet UNHCR criteria for refugee status and
choose not to begin the process.) Nevertheless, Caritas
separately reports that there are a number of truly needy
Iraqis among the non-refugee population — primarily
elderly Iraqis left behind when other family members
migrated from the region.

1.4. (C) According to UNHCR community development officer

Lisa McCann, the majority of recognized Iraqi refugees and
asylum seekers live in the poorer neighborhoods of southern
and eastern Amman. Smaller concentrations of Iraqi
refugees and asylum seekers live in Zarqa and Irbid, the
second and third largest cities in Jordan. (Comment: We

have heard separately that Iraqis seek housing and grey-
market jobs near the industrial parks of Amman, Zarqa and
Irbid. ) Only a handful of refugees and asylum seekers —
those McCann classified as truly in fear for their lives —
live scattered in rural villages. McCann said that most
other Iraqis tend to live in Amman, with downtown's
Hashemite Square as their main gathering spot - the place
to see, be seen and find any long-lost friends or
relatives. McCann added that for this reason, Hashemite
Square is also a known gathering spot for Iraqi
intelligence agents — a fact that makes most refugees and
asylum seekers nervous. Citing concern about Iraqi
refugees' safety, Caritas recently decided to relocate its
US-funded Iraqi refugee assistance programs from Hashemite
Square to a more discreet and protected location in Jebel
Amman .

15. (S/NF) UNHCR, like our consular section (ref),
continues to hear stories of tightened Jordanian border
controls. Under previous Jordanian procedures, any Iraqi
citizen was granted permission upon entry to stay in Jordan
for two weeks , with an automatic extension to three months
and a possible, easily obtainable extension of another
three months. Now, UNHCR and Caritas officials are hearing
anecdotal reports from the Iraqi community that Iraqis are
granted permission only for a two-week stay and that
certain categories — young men under the age of 46 — are
denied permission entirely. UNHCR officials also have
heard that the GOJ is now actively deporting Iraqis who
overstay their two-week residency and is denying permission
to these Iraqis to re-enter Jordan. Australian embassy
immigration official Todd Jacob separately told refcoord
that several Australian family reunification cases — all
young single men — were denied entry to Jordan by GOJ
border officials. UNHCR officials told refcoord that they
have formally asked the GOJ to clarify its border
procedures, but that the GOJ has not yet responded. (ORCA
sources report that under current GOJ procedures, Iraqis
are granted permission to stay in Jordan for two weeks only
and must immediately register with their local police
station upon entry into Jordan. Separately, our consular
section has seen cases in which Iraqis who had been denied
entry by GOJ officials at the Iraqi border were later able
to enter Jordan through Syria. )

1.6. (S/NP) Parlevliet and UNHCR Representative Sten Bronee
confirmed to refcoord th
at there had been a "significant"

increase in the number of recognized Iraqi refugees and
asylum seekers detained by the GOJ in recent months.
According to Parlevliet, all of the recognized refugees and
asylum seekers had been detained on security grounds and
released without charge. Parlevliet reported that the
detentions stopped abruptly at the beginning of December
presumably, she speculated, because the GID had discovered
that the recognized refugees and asylum seekers were
exactly what they appeared to be. (ORCA sources separately
confirmed that the GOJ has been "actively" looking for
possible Iraqi agents and has increased deportations,
focusing primarily on Iraqi males of military age.)

17. (C) McCann and Parlevliet added that most Iraqi asylum

seekers in Jordan appear to be economic migrants, without
any strong claim to refugee status. As Parlevliet
regime opponents fled in the aftermath of the 1991
uprising. Although Parlevliet told refcoord that she at
first was appalled by UNHCR's low recognition rate in
Jordan, she now thinks the ten percent recognition rate may
even be too high.

1.8. (C) UNHCR officials believe the Iraqis resident in

Jordan would be slow to return home in the event of regime
change inside Iraq. Stressing that most Iraqis in Jordan
came here seeking a better life, Parlevliet said she
suspects that they would take a cautious approach, waiting
to see the long-term effects of change in the region.

While most of the Iraqis resident in Jordan likely would

welcome regime change, Parlevliet said they likely would
adopt the same pragmatic approach to post-Saddam Iraq: are

they economically better off in Jordan or Iraq? Absent any
pressure from the GOJ to send Iraqis home, Parlevliet said
the Iraqi community is likely to remain in Jordan for "at
least several years" following regime change.

19. (C) Comment: UNHCR recognized refugees and asylum

seekers represent only a very small segment of the Iraqi
population resident in Jordan. UNHCR's low recognition
rate, the GOJ ' s tightening of Iraqi border controls, and
the fact that the act of seeking asylum inherently raises
an Iraqi's profile likely will continue to keep this
population relatively small even as tensions rise inside
Iraq. We will report via septel on the dynamics of the
larger Iraqi community resident in Jordan and its likely
role and impact here in the event of hostilities in Iraq.

GNEHM